SEASONAL FORECAST - KISORO

Issue Date: 1st March 2024

MARCH-APRIL AND MAY (MAM) 2024
SEASONAL RAINFALL OUTLOOK OVER UGANDA

1.0 Overiew

Overall, during MAM 2024 the country is expected to experience near-normal (near average) to above-normal (enhanced) rainfall over several parts of the country. However, some areas of Southwestern, Eastern, parts of Central, and Lake Victoria basin are expected to receive above-normal (enhanced) rainfall.
The onset of seasonal rains is expected to be established around early March in several parts of the southern sector of the country (Southwestern, Central, Western Lake Victoria basin, and Eastern). It is expected to progress towards Northern and parts of the Northeastern areas of the country around mid-March. The onset is likely to be characterized by severe isolated thunderstorms associated with strong winds, lightning, and hailstorms over several parts of the country.
After the onset, there is likely to be a disruption in the MAM rainfall by a dry spell around mid to late March.

2.0 General Forecast

The physical conditions that are likely to influence the rainfall outlook for MAM 2024 over Uganda include:
i) Currently the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral state, while the El-Nino episode is weakening and tending to a neutral state. The combination of the two conditions is most likely to have less influence over the MAM Seasonal Rainfall performance.
ii) The intra-seasonal variation of Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO) is likely to influence the spatial distribution of the MAM rainfall season at different time scales.
iii) The positioning and orientation of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over the country is expected to significantly influence this season's rainfall patterns.
iv) In the event of tropical cyclones occurring over the southwestern Indian Ocean, there will be a likelihood of disruption of the MAM rainfall.
v) The local and regional features are likely to play a significant role in the MAM rainfall distribution.
Based on the above drivers, Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA) has come up with a detailed MAM 2024 seasonal rainfall outlook as given below: -

2.1.0 Western Region

2.2.1 Western Central

The region has been experiencing isolated thundershowers signifying the onset of seasonal rains. The peak period is expected around mid-April. Cessation of the seasonal rains is expected around late May to early June. Overall, there is a likelihood for the region to experience near-normal (closer to average) rainfall tending to above-normal (enhanced) rainfall.

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